And "Relative Likelihood for Life as a Function of Cosmic Time". (Links via J.R.W.)
...one possible explanation for the classic Fermi paradox: Have we struck out in our attempts to detect alien intelligence simply because we are the first example of it to show up to the cosmic party?
...implying that life around low mass stars in the distant future is much more likely than terrestrial life around the Sun today.
If we insist that life near the Sun is typical and not premature, ... then we must conclude that the physical environments of low-mass stars are hazardous to life.
Although our result puts the probability of finding ourselves at the current cosmic time within the 0.1% level, rare events do happen.